This is an ongoing problem or solution, depending on a few variables and the specific changes that were made to the system. As state Game and Fish agencies’ budgets get tighter and tighter and residents of that state want less non-resident hunters, they often look to tweak the system in a variety of ways to reduce non-resident hunting pressure while increasing revenue. One of the problems with this, especially when dealing with states that have some sort of a preference draw and/point system, is that applicants who have been applying and building points for a certain hunt by a certain set of rules unexpectedly have the rules changed after they have already invested thousands of dollars based on that set of rules. The most common thing to do is to increase fees, but lately more and more agencies have been changing the draw systems and tag allocations to increase applications to capitalize on application fees. I will go through some of these changes that states have made that have had the biggest impacts on non-resident hunting over the years.
ARIZONA
Arizona made one of the biggest changes to tag allocation for non-residents in 2016. Non-residents have always been limited to “up to” 10% of the overall number of tags. Arizona issues 20% of the overall tags to applicants with the most points, and before 2016, all of the non-resident deer and elk tags could have been drawn from the max point draw, which left zero tags available for non-residents in the 80% random draw. Now this scenario only applied to a few of the top end elk and deer hunts as all other units/hunts had some amount of non-resident quota left for the random draw. However, AZGFD felt they were losing recruitment because technically even though 80% of all tags were being issued in a random draw, none of them were going to non- residents in a select few hunts. Obviously, with these select hunts/units being the most publicized and there being far more applicants who did not have the points to draw than did, they felt the need to make some changes. In 2016 AZGFD limited the number of non-resident tags that could be drawn in the max point pool to 5% of the 10% non-resident quota. The impacts that this change had were far more widespread than I think AZGFD had accounted for.
For instance, in units 13A and 13B, all the non-resident rifle permits were drawn in the max point draw (Bonus Pass) prior to the rule change. Therefore, 10% of the overall tag numbers were coming right off the top, so applicants, theoretically, could count down the years it would take them to draw their tag if they were the last ones in that point category, which in 2015 would have been somewhere between 12 and 14 years for applicants gaining their hunter education point and putting them in the top point category or top point applicants putting in for other units. Since there were going to be at least 13 non-resident permits issued in the Bonus Pass, that figure has now shrunk to 6 between the two hunts. Immediately, that 12-14 year wait in 2015 ballooned to a 17-19 year wait overnight, and the only reason that number is only 17-19 is because with the change we are seeing an increase in max point applicants switching to other units and hunts because some of them won’t live long enough to draw an Arizona Strip tag.
The other unintended consequence is point creep on those elk and deer hunts that were holding steady at a certain point level because all of the non-resident quota was being issued in the Bonus Pass and was clearing out the entire point level, so there was no carry over into the next year of that specific point pool for point creep; you just had to wait your turn. Take units 1/2B/2C, 3A/3C, 5BN, 10, and 27 for example. The number of points to draw an early archery tag stayed pretty much the same from 2011 to 2014, and then from 2015 to 2021, each of those units steadily increased at least one point per year, and in most cases, two points some years. Point creep has gotten out of hand since the change with no stop in sight unless they decide to make another change in the future. Look on the bright side, though. If you got started late in life to the point game in Arizona, you now have lottery type odds of drawing one of these permits in the random draw. Unfortunately, you most likely will never build up enough points to guarantee a tag for some of these hunts now with the increased point creep.
COLORADO
One change had to do with the ease with which a non-resident application could be submitted. In 2018, Colorado no longer required permit fees up front at the time of application nor required non-residents to apply with a paper application and personal check for sheep, moose, and goat. This was always the biggest barrier to entry to apply for the big three species in Colorado in that the money came directly out of your account and you had to download the application and fill everything in according to the instruction sheet. This was quite possibly the biggest financial swing in upfront application funding. Sheep, moose, and goat apps went from having to front $2,152 in 2017 to $3 in 2018. Colorado changed this structure again in 2019 by instituting a $100 point fee for sheep, moose, and goat if the applicant wished to get a point if unsuccessful in the draw. You can see in the graph that it indeed lowered the applications somewhat, but still a lot more applicants remained in the draw than prior to the change. This was a great change if the financial barrier was the thing holding you back from applying. However, for applicants who had been applying for sheep, moose, and goat for years, they will now have even more horrific draw odds since 2021 when the 2018 class of applicants hit the actual draw. The bottom line is that the application pool got a heck of a lot bigger for all species, but especially for the big three.
The most recent change was to the three- year average timeline that Colorado used to establish hybrid draw hunt codes and resident/non-resident quotas. The old timeline was 2007-2009, but the new timeline is a rolling three-year average minus the prior year, so this year’s average is 2019-2021. You can read the full details of this rule change on page 28s and 29 of the March 2023 magazine. The bottom line is that by updating the average years to be current, it will now cut non-resident quotas by 15% in twice as many hunts as in the past.
NEW MEXICO
New Mexico has made some significant changes over the years that have impacted draw odds for non-residents, but since they do not have a points system, at least they are not leaving applicants with a bunch of points holding the bag like other states that use point systems. The most recent change was in 2014 when New Mexico changed the non-resident quota for bighorns, oryx, and ibex to reflect the same quotas as the rest of the big game species quotas in New Mexico at the time. The big problem was the timing of this change because it came after the application deadline and just before the actual draw took place. Due to the application structure that was in place at the time of applying (no non- resident quota), the new 84% resident, 10% outfitted, and 6% non-resident split, there was no chance for a bighorn tag to be issued to a non-resident in 99% of the units and there were thousands of applicants who were in essence drawing dead. That was the most egregious example of application changes, but the timing had more to do with that one than when New Mexico made the same non-resident quota change to deer, elk, antelope, and barbary sheep in 2012. The 2012 change was at least made prior to the draw being conducted, so applicants knew what they were in for when they applied.
The biggest change that impacted draw odds the most in New Mexico was in 2004 when they gave preference to applicants’ first three hunt choices instead of looking at an applicant’s first choice and then moving to the next applicant. This change impacted draw odds dramatically as most applicants shot for the moon for their first two choices and put one of the easier to draw hunts as a third choice, which wrecked the draw odds for all of those hunts. Previously, applicants were forced to pick a single hunt and couldn’t have their cake and eat it too. For example, in the elk draw, 16A first rifle went from 6% odds in the non-resident pool to 3%, 16B went from 23% to 8%, and 16D went from 4% to 1% from 2003 (prior to the change) to 2004 (post change). Draw odds like this were seen across the board for all species, so this is why this change was so significant to all applicants. I leave off the same way I started the New Mexico segment. At least all non-residents are in the same boat, and all of us are at the same level and have an equal chance of drawing as there is not a point system.
UTAH
By far the biggest change to non-resident applications since Utah instituted a point system and at the time seemed like a huge win for non-resident applicants was in 2009 when they allowed non-residents to apply for all big game species instead of limiting them to having to pick one limited-entry species and one once-in- a-lifetime species, as residents are still currently limited to. This didn’t change the fact that they were still limited to only drawing one of those hunts per year. Now that we’ve had some time to reflect on the impacts of this change and have a direct comparison as to how residents’ draw odds have been impacted during the same timeframe by no change at all, this has pushed point creep to another level. Point creep has gotten out of hand for all species to the point that most non-resident applicants who did not already have species points prior to 2009 will only be putting in for random tags and will most likely never be considered in the max point preference draw for all limited-entry species except antelope. You can look at the charts and see how drastic of a difference there is between 14 points and under versus 15 points and over. Even though Utah has a preference draw for 50% of the permits issued for limited-entry hunts, if you are an applicant with fewer than 14 points as of 2023, don’t even look at these hunts as “guaranteed future hunts” as you will most likely never build enough points to be considered in the preference draw. Instead, look at Utah as a bonus point system and realize that every year you don’t get drawn for a random tag, you will pick up another point and have an extra chance in the draw for next year.
However, you will never be guaranteed a tag for most of the limited-entry hunts. The best opportunity for non-residents new to applying is the general deer draw, which can still have a guaranteed draw with only a few points.
WYOMING
It seems like every other state is doing everything they can to entice more applicants to apply in their state, which as shown above drastically worsens draw odds but increases revenue for the state. Wyoming, however, is going for it all by increasing revenue while limiting non-resident hunters. They have already reduced non-resident moose, sheep, mountain goat, and bison tags and are in discussions right now to reduce non- resident elk, deer, and antelope tags next. They are doing this all while raising the special draw tag fees for non- residents to make up for the lost revenue from the tag reduction. This isn’t the first time Wyoming has increased permit cost and bonus point fees to offset poor financial management. In 2006 when Wyoming rolled out preference points for elk, deer, and antelope, they increased the point fee from $7 to $75 for moose and $100 for sheep. This caused some to jump off the point train for those species, and they have probably regretted it ever since. The latest series of increases took moose from $75 to $150 and sheep from $100 to $150 along with increasing other species point fees, but they were considerably less percentage wise. The track record is there for what looks to be the latest non-resident license fee increase for all species again in 2024 (see Wyoming Fee Increase Chart).
However, Wyoming has picked up some pointers from other states along the way. While they are currently debating changing the non-resident quota for deer, elk, and antelope, they already made their minds up for reducing non- resident quotas for sheep, moose, mountain goat, and bison to 10%, which is more in line with other western states’ non-resident quotas for those species. One major problem with this change is that because of the way the Wyoming draw process works with 75% of the tags being issued to the highest point holders, there will not be any sheep tags issued to non-residents in the random draw and only a couple moose tags will be issued in the random draw in 2023. Stayed tuned as this process is scheduled to change yet again in 2025.
A couple important takeaways from this article is that no matter how long you have been playing the application game, you can’t ever guarantee that when you start applying the same units will be the best, the same amount of permits will be available, licenses and tags stay the same, or especially that the draw will be conducted the same way as when you started. Points, although valuable, are not valued the same way they were as if you started accumulating them 25 years ago. Too many applicants make the mistake of believing that the points they have spent thousands of dollars and years building are worth as much as the time and money invested and that is just simply not the case in this day and age. Yes, use your points wisely, but don’t put too much thought into it and hang on too long because options you had this year might not be there the next year based off what states decide to change.
Often, these changes have huge impacts on applicants who have been participating in the draw for a long time, and on the flip side, smaller impacts on newer applicants. The main purpose of this article is change how you as an applicant view points and draws in these states and not feel caught off guard when these states decide to change the rules you have been playing by for years to accommodate a different group of applicants. If you are sitting on a pile of points for any state, just know you are on the clock for state changes to impact your hunting plans. Knowing this, you should be looking at how to use those points sooner rather than later and avoid any potential changes that could derail your plans for that state. I am certainly not recommending to not participate in state draws, rather build points where it can benefit you. I actually would encourage anyone who is currently contemplating jumping in to do so now and take advantage of what the current system offers. For example, we know right now how the draw works in Wyoming and Colorado and all or most permits are awarded to applicants with the most points. This could very well change in the future by either limiting non-resident quotas even further and/or changing the number of permits that are awarded by preference like Arizona did in 2016, thus increasing the time required to guarantee a draw. Try to look at short-term draws and use these preference type draws to your advantage and build a couple of points and burn them on a hunt.
If you want to hold out for the best hunts in some states in the hopes of getting lucky, you are better off doing that in states like New Mexico, Montana, Idaho, and Nevada. All these states are completely random in the way they issue tags. Yes, Montana and Nevada have bonus point systems, but that does not guarantee a draw as it does in states’ preference point draw systems. If both states decided to do away with their point systems tomorrow, non-resident applicants would be way less affected than in those states that use a preference draw system. I can tell you from my own applications over the last 20+ years that I have drawn 10x the permits in states using a preference draw than in states that use a random draw.
The final piece of advice is to stay connected and pay attention to changes coming down the road. Sometimes these changes can blindside you, but if you play your cards right and don’t sit on a ton of points in these states that use preference draw systems, at least it won’t have as negative of an impact to your app strategy.
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